It was a Tuesday when I first saw people hoarding cooking oil at the corner store close to my apartment. Not very dramatic. The shopkeeper, who usually complains about slow afternoons, was suddenly counting inventory under his breath while a woman in her fifties was packing four tins into a plastic bag. Three weeks had passed since the closure at that point. The gesture has by now quietly spread from kitchen to kitchen, as these things do.
It’s difficult to ignore how the anxiety has permeated everyday situations. Dinner conversations now revolve around the Strait of Hormuz, a stretch of water that most people couldn’t have found on a map in February. That’s for a reason. During times of peace, it transports about 20% of the world’s oil and a comparable amount of LNG. When you consider that more than 80 million tonnes of LNG are sitting inaccessible and that more than 11 million barrels of Gulf crude per day are restricted, the figures cease to seem abstract around the time you pay your second grocery bill.
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Waterway | Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman |
| Narrowest point | Approximately 21 nautical miles wide |
| Bordering countries | Iran and Oman |
| Date of closure | Late February 2026 (following Feb. 28 strikes) |
| Oil disrupted | Roughly 20 million barrels per day, around 20% of global supply |
| LNG disrupted | Over 80 million tonnes per annum, nearly 20% of global LNG supply |
| Ships stranded in the Gulf | About 2,000 vessels are waiting for passage |
| Estimated mine-clearing time | Six months, per U.S. Navy assessment |
| War-risk insurance premiums | Risen from 0.25% to as much as 5% of hull value |
| Worst-case oil price forecast | US$200 per barrel (Wood Mackenzie) |
| Long-term outlook | Permanent diversification away from Gulf shipping routes, per The Fletcher School analysis |
Reading the three scenarios that Wood Mackenzie outlined in its most recent Horizons report is similar to reading a weather forecast that lists “category five hurricane” and “mild drizzle” on the same page. In the Quick Peace scenario, Brent eases back toward $80 by year’s end, and the strait reopens by June. The strait remains mostly closed through 2026 under Extended Disruption, and oil prices rise to $200. To be honest, no one knows which way it breaks. It appears that insurers think the risk is sticky. The U.S. Navy itself estimates that it will take six months to clear the mines, and premiums that were 0.25% of hull value before the war have increased to 5%.
Therefore, the anxiety is not illogical. People are performing mental math. A family with a variable-rate mortgage, a gas bill, food shipped from another location, and a twenty-mile commute to work has every reason to feel the floor shifting. The odd part is pretending otherwise.
What do you actually do, then? Stockpiling shelf-stable necessities, filling up the car when prices drop, auditing the energy bill, and keeping an eye on your finances are all common recommendations found in the financial press. Mostly dull advice. However, some quieter moves are worthwhile. This is the time to fix the door that lets winter in or insulate the attic if you’ve been putting it off. Locking in a fixed-rate utility plan where regulators permit it has saved households actual money in comparable crises if you have a margin. By most accounts, those who made investments in solar panels and heat pumps years ago are enjoying a quieter spring than their neighbors.
As we watch all of this happen, it seems like we’ve been here before, albeit in different costumes. 1973, 1979, and 1990. Every crisis exposed a distinct vulnerability, and the households and nations that had discreetly prepared for the previous one were rewarded. Even after ships resume sailing, Rockford Weitz of Tufts contends that the post-Hormuz world won’t resemble the pre-Hormuz one, with pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates taking in more cargo and Arctic shipping unlikely to be taken seriously.
Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that anxiety is simply early information when it is based on actual numbers. Avoiding drowning in it is the trick. Purchase the rice, check the tire pressure, discuss the heating with your landlord, and then head to bed. Eventually, the strait will reopen. The world that follows will likely be a little wiser, a little more diversified, and a little more cautious. It remains to be seen if we are worthy of calling that progress.